Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Mar 19 2024 07:50:00

FOUS30 KWBC 190815
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 19 2024 - 12Z Wed Mar 20 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent. 

Churchill

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 20 2024 - 12Z Thu Mar 21 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent. 

Churchill

Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 21 2024 - 12Z Fri Mar 22 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A blocked upper-low over the Southwest will finally begin to open
up and eject eastward into the Southern Plains on Wednesday, then
progged to dig on approach to the western Gulf Coast on Thursday. 
An impulse in the southern (subtropical) stream should help to
amplify the shortwave, leading to a period of modest return flow
from the Gulf into portions of the western and central Gulf Coast
region. PWATs should reach near 1.5" (near the 75th percentile
climatologically) on Thursday, and instability may be sufficient
enough near the coastline for organized convective activity. While
guidance at this range still has quite a wide array of solutions, 
it is notable that ensemble guidance (particularly the GEFS)
suggests the potential for localized 3" exceedance from the
southeast TX coast to south-central LA coast. Maintained the 
inherited Marginal Risk (with some adjustments) for this forecast 
cycle with the potential for localized totals in the 3-5" range 
(though will wait for more agreement and the inclusion of hi- res 
CAMs before considering any targeted upgrades to Slight Risk).

Churchill

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