Subj : DAY1SVR: Enhanced Risk TX To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Mar 15 2024 09:11:00 ACUS01 KWNS 151247 SWODY1 SPC AC 151246 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST MS INTO CENTRAL AL... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail and isolated damaging winds are expected through this evening from the Edwards Plateau into south central Texas. Damaging winds will be possible today from southeast Mississippi into central Alabama. ....Synopsis... As part of an evolving Rex block, a midlevel closed low will remain quasi-stationary over the lower CO River Valley through tonight. Farther east, subtle embedded speed maxima will eject northeastward from northern Mexico to TX, while within the northern stream a shortwave trough digs southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes overnight. Near and ahead of a surface cold front, an expansive band of convection has persisted through the early morning hours from the AR/LA border into northern AL. ....Edwards Plateau/south central TX through tonight... Isolated supercells are ongoing over the Edwards Plateau in association with a subtle speed max moving northeastward from Mexico. Steep midlevel lapse rates, boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-72 F south of a cold front, and sufficiently long hodographs will favor a continuation of the isolated supercell/very large hail threat this morning. Additional supercell development is expected later today through the afternoon into south central TX, with isolated storm development possible into parts of southeast TX. The more intense storms will be capable of producing swaths of very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter), along with isolated damaging winds of 60-70 mph. A storm cluster or two could also persist through tonight near or a little east of the Rio Grande, with a continued hail/wind threat into south TX. ....MS/AL today... The MS/AL convection will persist through the day as the moist boundary layer warms ahead of the storms. Low-level flow will tend to veer to westerly and slowly weaken through the day, though 50 kt midlevel flow will be maintained into the Southeast. This will support the potential for occasional/embedded line segments capable of producing damaging winds, mainly across southeast MS into central AL where the larger buoyancy is expected. ...Thompson/Dean.. 03/15/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: ILink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:3/105) .