Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon Mar 11 2024 08:06:00

ACUS01 KWNS 111227
SWODY1
SPC AC 111225

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS will lose some
amplitude temporarily, as an intense, synoptic-scale cyclone and
accompanying trough exit New England and move farther offshore over
the Atlantic.  While passing over a dry/stable boundary layer left
by recent cold-frontal passage, an upstream shortwave trough now
over the southern Plains will have no substantive convective
consequence, as it moves eastward across the Southeast and weakens.

Another in a series of shortwave troughs -- emanating from the base
of a persistent larger-scale trough over AK and the Gulf of Alaska
-- is moving across the interior Northwest.  In the 03Z-06Z time
frame, the next in the series should move ashore, followed early on
day 2 by yet another.  Low/middle-level destabilization preceding
each trough should lead to steepening lapse rates, atop a cool,
moist marine layer, with minimal MLCINH.  Cumulonimbi should result
that are relatively shallow, but still potentially capable of
extending into lightning-producing icing layers on an isolated
basis.  As such, a few flashes may be noted near the coast from
northwestern OR northward, this evening and overnight.

...Edwards/Jewell.. 03/11/2024

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