Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Mar 02 2024 09:30:00

FOUS30 KWBC 020734
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Sat Mar 02 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 02 2024 - 12Z Sun Mar 03 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 03 2024 - 12Z Mon Mar 04 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 04 2024 - 12Z Tue Mar 05 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

Elongated southern stream jet streak expanding along the
U.S.-Mexican border will allow shortwave energy to spread into the
Lower MS Valley and Central Gulf Coast region late Monday into
Monday night. Favorable left-exit region upper forcing ahead of
the main shortwave trough (upper divergence, deep-layer ascent,
and increasing southerly low-level flow off the Gulf of Mexico)
will allow for a quick surge in low-mid level theta-e/moisture
transport into the outlook area by Monday night, though at this
point per the ensembles, the 850 mb wind and moisture flux
standard anomalies are barely 1 standard deviation above normal
for early March through the Day 3 period (12Z Tue). Nevertheless,
the favorable synoptic setup with PWs climbing to ~1.75" and
MUCAPEs to ~1000+ J/Kg (highest along and off the Gulf Coast) will
favor widespread development of showers and thunderstorms, with
localized heavier rainfall rates of 2-3 inches within 2-3 hours
possible in areas where quasi-linear segments off the Gulf can
train for a while. This scenario could pose an isolated flash
flood risk, mainly across urban and other poor-drainage areas. As
a result, the Marginal Risk from yesterday's Day 4 ERO was carried
over into today's Day 3 outlook, albeit truncated quite a bit
given the lack of deep-layer instability farther north from the
Gulf Coast.

Hurley

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