Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Feb 28 2024 08:58:00

ACUS02 KWNS 280635
SWODY2
SPC AC 280634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

....Synopsis...

A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.

Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.

...Leitman.. 02/28/2024

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