Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Feb 24 2024 09:05:00

ACUS01 KWNS 241240
SWODY1
SPC AC 241238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas
this afternoon.

....Discussion...
Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is
expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward,
and eventually offshore.  In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will
prevail across essentially the entire country.

At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the
exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains.

With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and
southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is
evident across most of the country.  One exception will be across
portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough
currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues
southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast.  Cold air/steep lapse rates
aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and
Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak
destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon.  The weak
instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of
low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the
evening before weakening/moving offshore.

Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.

...Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024

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