Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Fri Feb 23 2024 09:10:00

ACUS01 KWNS 231234
SWODY1
SPC AC 231233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and
early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North
Carolina.

....Synopsis...
While ridging will persist across the western U.S., a broad area of
cyclonic flow will remain over the central and eastern portions of
the country through the period.  Within the cyclonic flow field, a
short-wave trough will continue moving eastward across the Southeast
through this evening.

In tandem with this short-wave trough, a cold front now crossing the
southern Appalachians will continue advancing across the East Coast
States today.  The front is expected to clear the Mid- and Southern
Atlantic Coasts this evening, while continuing southeastward across
the Florida Peninsula tonight.

....South Carolina vicinity...
Bands of weak, pre-frontal convection are moving eastward across the
southern Appalachians/Southeast early this morning.  Clouds and
ongoing precipitation will hinder heating this morning, though by
afternoon some clearing ahead of the front may occur, which --
combined with relatively steep lapse rates aloft -- should permit
modest destabilization to occur.

As the front shifts across Georgia and the Carolinas this afternoon,
an additional, low-topped band or two of convection should develop.
Given relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft, a few stronger
thunderstorms may evolve, potentially capable of producing locally
strong/gusty winds and marginally severe hail, before storms
weaken/move offshore during the evening.

...Goss.. 02/23/2024

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