Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Feb 22 2024 09:16:00

ACUS02 KWNS 220657
SWODY2
SPC AC 220656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Friday.

....Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough situated over the Southeast will slowly
pivot east to the coast during the period.  A surface low over the
Mid-Atlantic states will rapidly move northeast into the western
Atlantic, as a cold front sweeps southeast off the Carolina/GA coast
during the day and into the FL Peninsula.  Showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms may be ongoing during the morning over the
Carolinas/GA.  Models continue to indicate marginal moistening in
the low levels ahead of the front.  Forecast soundings show surface
dewpoints rising through the 50s over the SC/GA coastal plain but
with modest lapse rates.  Some heating occurs during the afternoon,
but veering and weakening low-level flow lends doubt as to whether
additional isolated storm activity will redevelop during the
afternoon.  Given the likelihood for only weak destabilization, will
defer the possible inclusion of low-severe probabilities to later
outlooks.  Elsewhere, cool and/or dry and stable conditions will
occur over much of the rest of the Lower 48 states.

...Smith.. 02/22/2024

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