Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Feb 20 2024 08:02:00

ACUS02 KWNS 200654
SWODY2
SPC AC 200653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are
possible late night Wednesday over mainly southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri.

....Southeast KS into the Ozarks...
Models exhibit good agreement in showing a quick-moving mid-level
speed max initially near northern Baja California moving into OK/AR
by early Thursday morning.  As the disturbance translates eastward,
a surface low will develop near the OK Panhandle and parallel the
KS/OK border overnight.  Southerly low-level flow intensifying with
the onset of a LLJ Wednesday evening will yield strong large-scale
ascent focused over southern KS east into the Ozarks.  Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop primarily
after 06z over southern KS.  A strong capping inversion located over
OK/TX will likely inhibit storm development to be near the surface
wave.  Cold temperatures in the midlevels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500
mb) with models showing dewpoints near 50 deg F will likely yield
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE.  Marginally severe hail will be possible with
the stronger elevated storms as they migrate east overnight.

...Smith.. 02/20/2024

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