Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Feb 14 2024 08:43:00

ACUS01 KWNS 141252
SWODY1
SPC AC 141250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S.
through tonight.

....Discussion...
Progressive quasi-zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the CONUS
through tonight. A shortwave trough and related cold front over the
eastern Pacific will reach the northern California/southwest Oregon
coast by late afternoon and evening, and move into the western Great
Basin late tonight. Modestly increasing moisture and steepening
lapse rates could yield thermodynamic conditions supportive of some
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across northern
California and southwest Oregon.

Across parts of the Midwest, some convection will probably develop
late this evening into the overnight, centered on parts of Iowa into
northern Illinois, generally near a deepening surface low and
along/north of a warm front. Even as mid-level lapse rates
considerably steepen, it is currently thought that limited source
region moisture and weak/thin buoyancy should keep the overall
thunderstorm potential limited (below 10 percent), but a couple of
lightning flashes are plausible.

...Guyer/Kerr.. 02/14/2024

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