Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Feb 11 2024 09:44:00

ACUS02 KWNS 110647
SWODY2
SPC AC 110646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized thunderstorm clusters, associated with wind damage and a
few tornadoes will be likely across parts of the Southeast on
Monday.

....Southeast...
An upper-level low will move into the mid Mississippi Valley on
Monday, as an associated 90 to 110 knot mid-level jet translates
eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low
will deepen and move northeastward into the southern Appalachian
Mountains, as a cold front advances eastward across the central Gulf
Coast states. At the start of the period, several bands or clusters
of thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing ahead of the front.
These storms are expected to become organized as they move eastward
across a moist airmass during the day. Surface dewpoints from near
the front eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard will be in the
60s F, with weak destabilization taking place across the moist
sector as surface temperatures gradually warm.

The mid-level jet associated with the upper-level low will move
eastward across Mississippi and Alabama during the day. The eastern
edge of the mid-level jet is forecast to overspread the moist
sector, which will create very strong deep-layer shear. Forecast
soundings by 21Z from eastern Alabama into north-central Georgia
have 0-6 km shear reaching the 80 to 90 knot range. In addition, the
strong low-level shear already over the moist sector is forecast to
be maintained, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity values remaining
in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be
favorable for severe storms, capable of producing wind damage and a
few tornadoes. The severe threat is expected to continue through the
late afternoon and early evening, as strong storms, associated with
a potential for wind damage and a tornado or two, move northeastward
into South Carolina.

...Broyles.. 02/11/2024

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