Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfa
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Fri Feb 09 2024 10:18:00

FOUS30 KWBC 090820
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 AM EST Fri Feb 09 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 09 2024 - 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 10 2024 - 12Z Sun Feb 11 2024

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...

Increasing large scale ascent across portions of the South and
Southeast U.S. ahead of a vigourous upper trough will set the
stage for increasing chances of heavy to possibly excessive
rainfall from the the Gulf Coast region into parts of the
Southeast U.S.. The latest guidance continue to depict an
elongated axis of QPF, with areal averages of 1 to 3 inches, to
form along the slow-moving/stalled surface front stretched across
the Lower Mississippi Valley, South- and Southeast-US...with
models favoring an axis from northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and northern Mississippi. A few models suggested maximums of 3-4+
inches to focus over these locations. Given the latest trends for
a west-east increase of areal coverage along the front, the
northern periphery of the previously issued Slight Risk area was
nudged just a bit farther northward.  Beyond that...few changes
were made.

Bann

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 11 2024 - 12Z Mon Feb 12 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK AREA OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. ON SUNDAY...

There may a lingering threat for excessive rainfall early in the
Day 3 period as the upper level dynamics begins to accelerate
eastward.  Then the on-shore flow of Gulf moisture becomes
re-established later in the day as the vigorous short wave
ejecting out of the southern Rockies makes its way north and
eastward and results in the flow aloft to become increasingly
difluent.  While there is some overlap with a northwest to
southeast stripe in Alabama where 14-day rainfall amounts of a
couple inches was observed...the axis of heaviest rain should
generally be over areas that have had little or no rainfall
recently so a Marginal risk area should be sufficient...especially
given that WPC deterministic rainfall amounts are generally at or
below 2 inches,

Bann
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