Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Feb 08 2024 08:31:00

ACUS02 KWNS 080642
SWODY2
SPC AC 080641

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not forecast on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms
are most likely late in the day and overnight from central Texas
through the Ohio Valley.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the West,
with a broad belt of southwest flow aloft extending from the
southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Various embedded waves will
move through the southwest flow during the day, with the primary
upper speed max nosing into the Southwest late.

At the surface, low pressure will move northeast across Ontario,
with a weak boundary extending southwestward across the lower MO
Valley and toward the TX Panhandle by 00Z. Ahead of the boundary,
modest southerly winds will aid moisture return, with generally mid
50s F to lower 60s F from the lower MS valley into eastern TX.

Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early on
Friday from the lower MS valley to the TN Valley in a region of
glancing low-level warm advection. Additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop late in the day from the ArkLaTex toward the OH
Valley, with MUCAPE generally on the order of 500 J/kg with strong
vertical shear. Small hail or a few strong wind gusts may occur with
any of the convection, but the overall severe risk appears minimal.

Additional thunderstorms are then expected to form overnight
extending southwestward across TX, as cooling aloft helps
destabilize the area. Low-level lift is likely to be weak at this
point, with large-scale ascent increasing into Saturday morning.

...Jewell.. 02/08/2024

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