Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Feb 07 2024 09:09:00

ACUS02 KWNS 070643
SWODY2
SPC AC 070642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few general thunderstorms may occur over the upper Mississippi
Valley on Thursday. Severe weather is unlikely.

....Synopsis...
A vertically stacked low over ND will move northeastward into
Ontario on Thursday, with little change in pressure. A fetch of
southerly winds will extend southward across much of the Plains and
MS Valley, with modest low-level moistening from eastern TX toward
the mid MS Valley.

Cooling aloft will accompany the primary embedded wave, moving from
the central Plains toward the upper Great Lakes through Friday
morning. In terms of ascent, the trajectory of the low will orphan
the developing moist sector farther south, as veered/westerly winds
just off the surface result in drying and weakening convergence.

Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms appear most likely
roughly from IA into WI during the ahead of the strong midlevel
vorticity maximum, with steepening lapse rates supporting lightning
within the developing arc of precipitation.

Elsewhere, another shortwave trough will move across the CO River
Valley and into AZ, providing cooling aloft and aiding isolated weak
convection north of the Rim in a weakly unstable environment.

...Jewell.. 02/07/2024

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