Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Thu Feb 01 2024 08:53:00 ACUS02 KWNS 010645 SWODY2 SPC AC 010644 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF TX AND WESTERN OK... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ....TX to western OK... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from mid afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of a very fast upper jet overspreading much of the international border with northern Mexico through 12Z Saturday. While intense mid-level winds will remain displaced south of the upper jet deeper into northern Mexico, a lobe of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies should accompany the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse from the Lower CO Valley to the southern High Plains. Guidance does have greater-than-typical spread for the D2 time frame with the amplitude of the jetlet(s) spreading into TX by Friday evening. These differences are enough to defer on highlighting any mesoscale corridors of cat 2-SLGT risk, especially where supercell potential should be conditionally maximized Friday night in south TX. Primary categorical adjustment with this outlook is to expand the cat 1-MRGL risk farther northwest, given the signal for mid- to late-afternoon thunderstorm development in northwest TX to western OK. The 03Z RAP is relatively aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer moistening and corresponding MLCAPE plume developing this far northwestward. Bulk of guidance suggests this region should remain on the periphery of the modified moisture return, which was characterized by mean mixing ratios near 9 g/kg in the 00Z BRO sounding. Despite a predominantly meridional deep-layer wind profile, adequate hodograph curvature could support a couple supercells with severe hail as the primary threat. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front ejects east. As this impinges on the modest buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong to marginal severe gusts should occur. This activity will likely spread east across central TX, while downstream storms also form during the evening/night given the favorable large-scale ascent. The tail end of strengthening low-level south-southwesterlies, coincident with low to mid 60s surface dew points, may also offer a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado. This may occur during the late evening to overnight as multiple clusters spread east across a portion of south TX towards the Middle TX Gulf Coast. ...Grams.. 02/01/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .