Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Fri Jan 26 2024 08:55:00 ACUS02 KWNS 260657 SWODY2 SPC AC 260656 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible from Saturday morning through early evening across parts of the central Gulf Coast and the Deep South. ....Central Gulf Coast and Deep South... Below-average confidence exists with the most likely outcome for the degree of severe storm coverage on Saturday, with two conditional scenarios evident across the region. Initially, a swath of warm-conveyor-driven convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z from the northwest Gulf through MS and west AL, downstream of shortwave trough near the Ark-La-Tex. Richer surface dew points will attempt to spread inland, mainly in the central Gulf Coast vicinity, but further inland destabilization will be limited by extensive cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates. Thus, an increase in convective intensity is possible near the immediate Gulf Coast where low-level hodographs will be sufficiently enlarged. A few embedded supercell/mesovortex structures are possible as this convection spreads into south AL and the western FL Panhandle. A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds would be most probable from mid-morning into early afternoon. Most CAM guidance suggests this early period activity should wane later in the afternoon as forcing for ascent weakens. Low-level warm advection/placement of the jet should shift north away from the coast as destabilization struggles with eastward extent. In its wake, an intrusion of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (beneath weak upper-level lapse rates) should accompany the shortwave trough moving east across the Mid-South. This will likely aid in afternoon destabilization towards the TN Valley. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization, ahead of the weakly cyclogenetic surface low expected to evolve from the Ark-La-Miss to eastern TN. But there are indications that cloud breaks may occur from southeast MS into parts of west AL beneath the mid-level dry slot, which may yield a confined plume of weak surface-based instability. Conditionally, a moderately enlarged low-level hodograph below a rather elongated mid to upper hodograph would favor the possibility of a few low-topped, discrete supercells, before low-level winds become increasingly veered near the impinging cold front. This appears focused on the central to north AL vicinity during the late afternoon to early evening. Should adequate destabilization occur at peak heating, a couple tornadoes will be possible before convection tends to subside after dusk and with eastern extent into GA. ...Grams.. 01/26/2024 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .