Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Jan 24 2024 09:26:00

ACUS02 KWNS 240622
SWODY2
SPC AC 240620

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the lower Mississippi River Valley and central Gulf Coast region on
Thursday.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level shortwave trough, currently over northern Mexico, is
forecast to lift from the lower MS River Valley into the Midwest
through the day Thursday. As this occurs, a weak cold front will
migrate from central LA into southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle
through the day. Although favorable low-level moisture is currently
in place across the region, the potential for several rounds of
convection over the next 24 hours may inhibit the development of a
substantial inland warm sector. However, some compensatory mid-level
lapse rate advection within the mean southwesterly flow regime and
residual low-level moisture should support MUCAPE values between
500-1000 J/kg over the region. Convection may develop along/ahead of
the front relatively early in the period - if not already ongoing by
12Z Thursday - given weak convective inhibition and modest ascent
associated with the passing shortwave over the frontal zone.
Consequently, the severe threat may manifest during the mid/late
morning period before stronger flow aloft exits the region to the
northeast in tandem with the mid-level jet max.

However, the possibility for an early onset of deep convection makes
the propensity for surface-based convection questionable away from
the coast given the potential for deep cloud cover and limited time
for diurnal destabilization. This concern, combined with the modest
buoyancy profiles, diminishing forcing for ascent through the day,
and increasing displacement of the stronger kinematics with the
better moisture/buoyancy, should limit the overall severe threat.
However, a few damaging gusts are possible as one or more convective
lines develop along the cold front and translate east across the
region. A few model solutions hint at the potential for more
discrete/semi-discrete cells ahead of the front within a weakly
capped warm advection regime. Forecast soundings suggests these
cells should primarily be elevated, but given somewhat favorable
low-level kinematics (effective SRH on the order of around 100
m2/s2), these cells could pose a tornado threat if sufficient
near-surface destabilization can occur (i.e. temperatures in the low
70s).

...Moore.. 01/24/2024

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