Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon Jan 22 2024 09:11:00

ACUS01 KWNS 221252
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....Discussion...
A broad zone of amplifying cyclonic flow is forecast to expand
eastward to eventually include the western 2/3 of the country, while
ridging builds northward across the eastern U.S. through the period.

Within the cyclonic flow field expanding eastward with time,
multiple small-scale troughs/vorticity maxima will travel eastward
in an arcing manner through the background flow.  Associated ascent,
coupled with abundant Pacific moisture, will support widespread
precipitation.

While cold/stable low-level air will continue to prevail over the
eastern half of the country where the influence of surface high
pressure remains, an area of thunderstorms -- largely elevated atop
the low-level cold air -- will continue, from portions of Texas
across the Arklatex region.  Storms spreading northeastward across
the Texas Coastal Plain today will encounter an area of weak
near-surface-based CAPE along immediate coastal areas.  With the
background kinematic environment exhibiting favorably strong/veering
flow with height, this may result in the evolution of a couple of
stronger storms for a brief time late this morning/early this
afternoon -- and possibly a brief window of non-zero severe
potential.  However, at this time risk does not appear sufficient to
introduce even a lowest-end (5% wind/2% tornado) risk area.

Meanwhile in the West, showers and occasional lightning flashes will
be possible from portions of central and southern California into
southern Arizona.  This convection will be associated with a rather
pronounced mid-level trough embedded within broader cyclonic flow --
and an associated mid-level jet -- digging southeastward out of the
eastern Pacific into the southwestern states through the period.
Severe weather is not expected.

...Goss/Mosier.. 01/22/2024

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