Subj : TROPDISC: Atlantic Storm
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Dec 19 2023 10:09:00

625 
AXNT20 KNHC 191053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Large Area of Seas in Excess of 12 feet across the Western 
Atlantic:
A cold front has stalled overnight across the W Atlantic, and
remains from near 31N69W southwestward through the Windward
Passage. A strong 1050 mb high pressure system near 45N42W extends
southwestward to Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between these
features was supporting near-gale to gale force winds N of 26W and
between 61W and the front overnight. However, winds have
diminished slightly, to below gale-force in the past few hours.
Seas generated by strong to gale-force winds to the S and SW of
the strong high have produce an expansive area of seas 12 ft and
greater across the Atlantic in recent days. Seas of 12 to 16 ft in
merging E and S swell, and associated with the recent gale- force
winds, cover the waters N of 26N between 61W and 75W. Strong high
pressure will build into the western Atlantic behind the front
today through early Thu, and force the front to move SE. This will
also to produce fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front,
gradually diminishing to moderate to fresh Thu through Fri. Seas
will subside very slowly to the W of 60W through Tue night as
large NE to E swell continues to move into this area. This swell
will then begin to mix with northerly wind swell being generated
behind the front to produce an increasing trend in seas W of 60W,
with seas again building to 12 to 15 ft to the N of 21 between 65W
and the Bahamas by Wed night.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning:
The pressure gradient between the aforementioned 1050 mb high
centered near 45N42W and a stationary front extending from 31N34W
to 23N56W is supporting a large area of near-gale to gale force
winds N of 24N between 43W and 57W. Seas over this area are
peaking at 23 ft near 28N50W. Seas greater than 12 ft in NE swell
cover the waters N of 20N and between 35W and 65W. The strong high
center will move northeastward over the next couple of days, 
while the stationary front weakens. This will loosen the pressure 
gradient, and diminish winds below gale force by late this 
afternoon. However, large NE swell will continue to produce an 
expansive area of seas 12 ft and greater through Wed morning, 
before gradually diminishing to less than 12 ft across the area E 
of 65W, by Thu morning. 

 [...]

....ATLANTIC OCEAN...

 [...]

For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure will build 
into the western Atlantic behind the front tonight through early 
Thu to produce fresh to strong winds, gradually diminishing to 
moderate to fresh Thu through Fri. This will force the front to 
move SE and reach from 31N66W to Haiti Tue evening, from 31N61W to
central Hispaniola Wed evening, then begin to dissipate from 
22N60W to NE Hispaniola Thu evening. Winds and seas will slowly 
subside Fri through Sat as high pressure weakens.

$$
Stripling
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