Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Dec 14 2023 09:07:00

ACUS02 KWNS 140643
SWODY2
SPC AC 140641

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

....Central to east TX...
Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave
trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of
elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This
activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z
Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley
to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels
should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse
rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of
the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated,
but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level
moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater.

Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection
will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of
guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak
and potential for charge separation is slim.

...Grams.. 12/14/2023

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