Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Dec 12 2023 08:41:00

ACUS01 KWNS 121240
SWODY1
SPC AC 121238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico.

....Synopsis...
Within a southern stream, a midlevel shortwave trough will move
southeastward over NV toward northwest AZ by early Wednesday.
Farther east, a modifying air mass will begin to return to south TX
and the lower Rio Grande Valley, though moistening farther northwest
into west TX/southeast NM will likely occur near and above the 700
mb level.  Midlevel lapse rates will be sufficiently steep to allow
for the development of weak buoyancy aloft, and warm advection may
support a few embedded convective elements capable of producing
isolated lightning flashes tonight.  Otherwise, gradual low-level
moistening will continue across southeast FL in a persistent
east-northeasterly flow regime, and across the lower TX coast with
onshore flow.  Shallow convection/showers are probable in both
areas, but the threat for convection deep enough to produce
lightning before 12z still appears fairly low.

...Thompson/Gleason.. 12/12/2023

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