Subj : MESO: Heavy Rain/Flooding
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Dec 10 2023 10:03:00

AWUS01 KWNH 101419
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-102018-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1194
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
919 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle, extreme
southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101418Z - 102018Z

Summary...A vigorous convective complex was migrating slowly
eastward across portions of the Florida Panhandle west/southwest
of Tallahassee.  3+ inch/hr rain rates were noted with parts of
the system.  Expectations are that these rain rates will pose an
isolated flash flood risk across the discussion area through 20Z.

Discussion...Recent MRMS estimates of 3-4 inch/hr rain rates were
noted with robust convection located from near Tallahassee
southwestward to near Apalachicola.   The storms were oriented in
broken linear segments parallel to deep southwesterly flow aloft,
which was allowing for localized training.  Meanwhile, 1000 J/kg
SBCAPE and 1.7+ inch PW values were located in a very narrow
warm/moist sector just ahead of the convective complex while
contributing to extremely efficient rainfall processes.  Given the
overall convective scenario, the expectation over the next 3-6
hours is that slow eastward translation of the convective complex
will like result in continued areas of ~3 inch/hr rain rates -
especially along and south of I-10 across the discussion area.

As typical for the region, FFG thresholds are generally in the 3-4
inch/hr and 4 inch/3-hr range across most of the Panhandle. 
Observed rain rates have only approached these thresholds on an
isolated/spotty basis.  Again, these trends are expected to
continue with only a slow eastward translation of the axes of
heavier rainfall.  Flash flood potential will likely be tied to
areas where heavier rainfall can 1) occur over urban/sensitive
ground areas or 2) where localized training can lengthen the
duration of heavier rainfall.  Expectations are that this risk
will extend through 20Z while reaching the I-75 corridor in north
Florida through 20Z.

Cook


ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31098444 30788274 29978246 29168265 29448539 
            30738548 

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