Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Fri Dec 08 2023 15:09:00

ACUS01 KWNS 081632
SWODY1
SPC AC 081630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Fri Dec 08 2023

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND OZARKS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible this evening and overnight
across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks.

....Ozarks/ArkLaTex...
Height falls will regionally increase late today into tonight owing
to the interface of a northern Plains shortwave trough and the
east/northeastward ejection of a trough/jet streak from the
central/southern Rockies. As this occurs, lower/some middle 60s F
surface dewpoints are expected to become increasingly prevalent
tonight across the ArkLaTex and sizable portions of Arkansas in
advance of a front and dryline across Texas.

Thunderstorms are expected to become more probable regionally and
tend to increase in coverage after sunset, and particularly into the
late evening/overnight hours as they move northeastward across the
region. Initial development will be possible across far southeast
Kansas, central /southern Missouri, and eastern Oklahoma/western
Arkansas, with more isolated storms farther south.

Regarding the northern end of development, surface-based buoyancy
should remain limited in vicinity of the near-frontal surface wave
across Missouri. While small hail and/or gusty winds may occur, the
primary surface risk should be focused farther south.

A few severe storms will be possible across the Arklatex/Arkansas
this evening into the overnight. Hail is the most probable hazard
amidst 40-45 kt effective shear, but forecast soundings suggest that
a few near-surface-based storms could materialize this evening into
the overnight. Accordingly, a low potential for a tornado may also
exist mainly across portions of Arkansas.

...Guyer/Weinman.. 12/08/2023

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