Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Dec 06 2023 09:53:00

ACUS02 KWNS 060528
SWODY2
SPC AC 060526

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

....Northwest...
The next in a series of shortwave troughs will impinge on the OR/CA
border area on Thursday morning, before digging across the Great
Basin by Thursday night. Already steep 700-500 mb lapse rates in the
wake of a trough passage on D1 will steepen further between 8 to 8.5
C/km as cold 500-mb temperatures from -30 to -35 C become common.
This should compensate for gradually decreasing boundary-layer
moisture as onshore winds become northwesterly with low 40s surface
dew points holding along the coast through the afternoon. Scant
surface-based buoyancy is anticipated with multiple rounds of
scattered low-topped convection. Similar to D1, sporadic lightning
flashes will be possible, tending to focus along the OR to far
northern CA coast during the morning and afternoon.

Very isolated thunderstorms may also occur east of the Cascades in
the eastern OR/western ID/northern NV vicinity during the afternoon,
within the strongly forced ascent region ahead of the shortwave
impulse. Due to minimal buoyancy, thunderstorm probabilities appear
to be less than 10 percent.

...Grams.. 12/06/2023

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