Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon Nov 27 2023 10:00:00

ACUS02 KWNS 270626
SWODY2
SPC AC 270625

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms may approach coastal northern California
into Wednesday morning. Severe storms are unlikely.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the
Great Lakes across the Northeast, with rapid height rises on the
back side of the trough. Cool air aloft will exist over the lower
Great Lakes early in the day, and a rogue lightning flash cannot be
ruled out. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface
convergence suggest less than 10% coverage.

To the west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast
overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday.
Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent
may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with
lighting possibly over land prior to 12Z Wednesday. Severe weather
is unlikely given weak and elevated instability.

...Jewell.. 11/27/2023

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