Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Nov 14 2023 08:39:00 ACUS01 KWNS 141245 SWODY1 SPC AC 141243 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along part of the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ....Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a split-flow pattern will be maintained around a quasistationary cyclone offshore from the Pacific Coast, with downstream ridging across portions of the Great Basin and southern Rockies. Farther east, a southern-stream shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from east TX to the lower TX Coast -- will move eastward to the central Gulf coast and central Gulf of Mexico by the end of the period. A related frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z over Gulf waters roughly south of ARA and east of BRO, with cold front southwestward over northeastern MX. A warm front was drawn to about 75-80 nm south of the Mississippi River mouth, then southeastward over the east-central Gulf, becoming quasistationary across south FL and through a weak wave low near MIA. The Gulf low is forecast to deepen and drift northeastward through the period, as the mid/upper trough approaches. By 12Z, the low should be over or just south of the Mississippi River mouth, but with the warm sector over water, as the warm-frontal segment arches eastward then southeastward over the north-central/eastern Gulf. The front should move little over south FL, perhaps with a slight northward drift. The cold front will move slowly eastward over the western/central Gulf south of the low. Isolated and marginal thunder potential exists over land beneath an elevated warm-advection/moisture-transport conveyor, located north through northeast of the Gulf low. Marginal buoyancy is expected, with elevated MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg and just sporadically reaching ideal icing layers for lightning generation. Isolated thunderstorms also may be embedded in deep low-level easterlies across southern portions of the FL Peninsula, near the warm/stationary frontal zone. Organized severe potential appears minimal due to lack of greater magnitudes of lift, lapse rates and deep shear. The bulk of thunderstorms and any appreciable strong- severe convective potential should remain over open Gulf waters, where stronger shear is forecast, and air-sea fluxes of heat and moisture will optimize boundary-layer theta-e for surface-based effective inflow. ...Edwards/Gleason.. 11/14/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .