Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Nov 09 2023 08:09:00

ACUS01 KWNS 091253
SWODY1
SPC AC 091252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Ark-La-Tex
into south Texas, and across southwest New Mexico.

....Ark-La-Tex to south TX through tonight...
In the wake of a northern stream shortwave trough over the Upper
Great Lakes, a surface cold front will continue to move slowly
southeastward into the Ark-La-Miss and to the TX coast by the end of
the period.  Aloft, a weak southern stream shortwave trough will
move east-northeastward from Sonora toward TX.  Boundary-layer
dewpoints range from the low-mid 60s in the Ark-La-Tex to the low
70s across south TX, beneath lingering steep midlevel lapse rates of
7-8 C/km.  Temperatures above the 500 mb level are relatively warm
and will tend to limit the depth/magnitude of buoyancy, while lapse
rates will be reduced by gradual moistening/ascent along the cold
front and atop the frontal surface.  Thus, a few thunderstorms will
be possible through tonight along the front, but relatively weak
buoyancy and vertical shear will limit the potential for severe
storms.

....Elsewhere...
A modest increase in low-level moisture along a backdoor front and
the approach of the midlevel trough from Sonora could support
isolated thunderstorms across southwest NM and vicinity from later
this afternoon into early tonight.  A deamplifying midlevel
shortwave trough and associated cold front will progress inland over
WA by early tonight.  Buoyancy will be minimal along the frontal
band and quite shallow/weak in the post-frontal airmass, so
thunderstorm chances appear too low for an outlook area.

...Thompson/Smith.. 11/09/2023

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