Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Nov 09 2023 08:09:00

ACUS02 KWNS 090700
SWODY2
SPC AC 090659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Thu Nov 09 2023

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Texas and the
adjacent Texas Coastal Plain on Friday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Broadly cyclonic flow is forecast to cover the north-central and
northeastern CONUS early Friday morning in the wake of a
mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Ontario. Enhanced mid-level flow
associated with this cyclone will cover much of the eastern CONUS
early Friday, but should gradually shift eastward throughout the
period as the parent cyclone progresses northeastward. Additionally,
the overall upper troughing is expected to deamplify throughout the
day as an embedded shortwave trough progresses quickly across the OH
Valley and off the Northeast coast.

Farther southwest, a southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to
gradually move eastward across the southern High Plains during the
day, and then more northeastward across OK overnight. This wave is
expected to lose amplitude during this time frame as it encounters
more confluent flow aloft. To the south and east of this shortwave,
a remnant frontal zone will likely stretch southwestward from a weak
surface low over southeast TX through deep south TX. This front will
make gradual southward progress throughout the day, moving off the
TX coast by the early afternoon, if not sooner. Poor lapse rates
will limit buoyancy in the vicinity of the front, but persistent and
moist southwesterly flow aloft will support very moist profiles
(i.e. PWs around 2") and the potential for a few deeper convective
cores capable of producing lightning.

Across the northwest CONUS, a shortwave trough initially extending
from southern British Columbia through eastern WA is expected to
continue eastward across the northern Rockies and southern Alberta
into southern Saskatchewan and MT. Another shortwave trough will
likely move through southern CA by Saturday morning. Moisture will
be limited ahead of these waves, precluding thunderstorm
development.

...Mosier.. 11/09/2023

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