Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Wed Nov 08 2023 09:52:00 ACUS01 KWNS 081237 SWODY1 SPC AC 081235 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 AM CST Wed Nov 08 2023 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ....Great Lakes area through tonight... An embedded shortwave trough over the central High Plains this morning will move quickly east-northeastward toward the Great Lakes by tonight, while phasing with a deepening trough that will be located over the MN Arrowhead by Thursday morning. An associated surface cyclone will translate east-northeastward from northeast KS this morning to northern MO/IL this afternoon and Lower MI tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints have increased to near 60 F in the warm sector of the cyclone in MO, and this moisture will spread northeastward into IL/IN through early tonight. However, buoyancy is likely to remain weak in the capped surface warm sector, and the stronger forcing for ascent will be in the warm advection zone from southern WI across Lower MI. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg rooted near 850 mb will support continued elevated thunderstorm development through the day and into tonight. Some sub-severe hail could accompany the strongest storms from southeast WI into Lower MI given the long hodographs aloft with the weak buoyancy, but the threat for hail greater than 1 inch in diameter should remain too low for an outlook area. ....Ark-La-Tex to central TX overnight... Gradual low-level moistening/destabilization will occur across TX/southeast OK/AR in advance of a cold front that will reach central AR to central TX by the end of the period. There will be a small chance for elevated convection along/just north of the front 09-12z. However, lingering convective inhibition should delay any storm development until the day 2 period, and relatively warm temperatures above 500 mb will limit buoyancy depth and charge separation potential with any deeper convection that does form prior to 12z. ...Thompson.. 11/08/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .