Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Nov 07 2023 08:58:00 ACUS02 KWNS 070651 SWODY2 SPC AC 070649 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Tue Nov 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northwest Illinois, northern Indiana, far northwest Ohio, and Lower Michigan on Wednesday. ....Synopsis and Discussion... A pair of shortwave troughs, one extending from the southern Manitoba/Saskatchewan border through WY and the other stretching from the UT/NV border vicinity into southern CA, will contribute to broad upper troughing over the western and central CONUS early Wednesday. The northern shortwave is forecast to translate quickly eastward/northeastward through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes as another more substantial shortwave drops southeastward through Saskatchewan into the northern Plains. A surface low attendant to the lead northern-stream shortwave is forecast to begin the period over eastern KS, before then progressing quickly northeastward just southeast of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will sweep eastward/southeastward across the Mid MS Valley, KS, OK, the TX Panhandle, and north TX. By early Thursday morning, the surface low is expected to be over southwest Ontario, with the cold front extending southwestward into the TX Hill Country. A broad warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints is anticipated ahead of this front from the Mid MS and OH Valley into TX. Even so, overall buoyancy will be limited by warm temperatures aloft, and thunderstorm development along the front is unlikely. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening within the warm-air advection zone near the surface low over the OH Middle/Upper OH Valley and Lower MI. Here, low to mid-level moisture advection coupled with cooling mid-level temperatures may support enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms. Overall updraft duration and strength will be limited by meager buoyancy, but cool profiles and strong shear could still support some small hail within the strongest updrafts. A few Wednesday night/early Thursday morning lightning flashes are also possible from north-central TX through southeast OK into west-central AR within some post-frontal elevated convection. Overall coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%. ...Mosier.. 11/07/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .