Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Sun Nov 05 2023 09:04:00 ACUS02 KWNS 050548 SWODY2 SPC AC 050547 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into Idaho and far southwest Montana, as well as over Lower Michigan, on Monday. ....Synopsis and Discussion... Surface low is forecast to be over western Lake Superior early Monday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low to another secondary low over central KS. The primary low is expected to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and northeast Ontario into southern Quebec, just ahead of its parent shortwave trough. Portion of the front close to the low will make steady eastward progress across the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. Some modest buoyancy is possible across Lower MI within the warm-air advection zone ahead of the front, contributing to the potential for a few deeper updrafts and isolated lightning flashes. Southern portion of the front is expected to stall across KS and MO amid persistent low-level moisture return. Low-level convergence will be sustained along this boundary throughout much of the day, with dewpoints south of the boundary approaching 60 deg F. Even so, warm mid-level temperatures are expected to prevent deep convection and limit thunderstorm chances. Farther west, a pair of shortwave troughs are expected to impact the Pacific Northwest. The lead wave will likely move through early Monday, continuing eastward into the northern Rockies Monday evening. A second, more amplified wave will follow in the wake of the first, approaching the Pacific Northwest and northern/central CA coast early Tuesday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures amid favorable large-scale forcing for ascent will support the potential for a few deeper convective cores capable of lightning from eastern OR into southern ID during the afternoon and evening. Multiple rounds of convection are also possible along the coast as the shortwaves move through. Cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy over this region as well, with some isolated lightning possible. ...Mosier.. 11/05/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .