Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Nov 04 2023 08:27:00

ACUS02 KWNS 040528
SWODY2
SPC AC 040526

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sat Nov 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida Sunday
morning through the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible along the Pacific Northwest coast late Sunday night through
early Monday morning.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough will likely extend from the Middle OH Valley
southwestward into MS early Sunday morning, before then continuing
eastward/southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and remainder of the
Southeast states and FL. Low-level moisture will be limited ahead of
this shortwave, except over south FL where moderate low-level
moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 60s) will likely still be
in place. Low-level convergence (particularly on the eastern coast
of south FL), combined with modest large-scale ascent, may support
isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon over the region. After
that, any remaining low-level moisture will be pushed offshore by a
surge of dry air associated with the passing shortwave.

Farther west, a pair of shortwave troughs are expected to traverse
the belt of enhanced, largely zonal westerly flow extending from the
Pacific Northwest into the Upper Great Lakes. The lead wave is
forecast to progress from the northern Rockies through the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Mid-level temperatures should be cold
enough to support modest buoyancy, and the potential for a few
flashes will exist from ID into northern WY and southeast MT.
However, given the limited moisture, overall coverage is currently
expected to remain below 10%.

An associated surface low will move just ahead of this wave, ending
the period over the western Upper MI/western Lake Superior vicinity.
A cold front attendant to this low is expected to move across the
northern and central Plains. However, limited low-level moisture and
buoyancy should preclude thunderstorm development.

The second, more substantial shortwave trough is expected to
approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Monday morning. One or
more bands of low-topped convection may precede this shortwave, with
potential for lightning within any deeper convective cores.

...Mosier.. 11/04/2023

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