Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Fri Nov 03 2023 09:21:00

ACUS02 KWNS 030522
SWODY2
SPC AC 030520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Pacific
Northwest and south Florida on Saturday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the
strong westerly flow aloft extending from the northeast Pacific
Ocean across the Pacific Northwest. Modest buoyancy is possible
along the coast, with isolated lightning flashes possible during the
morning as the lead shortwave trough moves through. Cold mid-level
temperatures will spread into the interior Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies as the lead shortwave continues eastward, which
will help foster modest buoyancy across eastern OR/WA and central ID
during the afternoon and evening. Primary frontal band associated
with the lead shortwave will likely be moving through the region at
the same time, contributing to the potential for a few lightning
flashes within any deeper embedded convective cores.

Farther east, a shortwave trough initially extending from eastern SD
into eastern CO is forecast to progress quickly southeastward
throughout the day while deepening. By early Sunday morning, this
shortwave is expected to extend from the Upper OH Valley into
central MS. Showers are possible in the vicinity of this wave as it
moves eastward/southeastward. However, low-level moisture will
remain limited, precluding buoyancy and tempering any thunderstorm
chances.

Low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in place across FL throughout the
day, contributing to modest buoyancy. This buoyancy, coupled with
low-level convergence and large-scale ascent attendant to a
slow-moving shortwave trough, should foster isolated thunderstorm
development across south FL throughout the period.

...Mosier.. 11/03/2023

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