Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Oct 24 2023 08:19:00

ACUS02 KWNS 240528
SWODY2
SPC AC 240526

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the southern Plains and the Middle Missouri Valley on Wednesday.
Hail and locally strong gusts will be possible with this activity.

....Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern
Rockies on Wednesday morning will shift east/northeast across the
central/southern Plains by early Thursday. Moderate deep-layer
south/southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains to the
Mid-MO Valley. Meanwhile, a northern stream upper trough over the
Pacific Northwest will dig southeast across the northern Rockies and
Great Basin. At the surface, southerly low-level flow will maintain
generally mid-60s F dewpoints across TX/OK. Boundary-layer moisture
will increase into the low/mid 60s F across parts of eastern KS/NE
and into northern MO/IA by afternoon/evening.

....Southern Plains...

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of
western/west-central TX Wednesday morning. Along with widespread
cloudiness in a persistent warm advection regime, this will limit
stronger destabilization despite a moist boundary-layer.
Nevertheless, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE values amid effective shear
magnitudes around 35-45 kt should be sufficient for at least
transient organized convection. Initial thunderstorms clusters may
organize into bowing segments as outflow consolidate during the
afternoon. Sporadic hail to 1.5 inches and locally strong gusts of
45-60 mph will be possible with the strongest storms.

....Mid-MO Valley Vicinity...

While the northern stream upper trough will remain far to the west,
surface low development is forecast over eastern WY/western SD/NE. A
warm front will lift northward from northeast KS/northern MO into
north-central IA through early evening. Given the orientation of
shear vectors, storms developing during the afternoon and evening
will likely remain to the cool side of the warm front. Poor
low-level lapse rates and some warming in the midlevels with time
will likely result in at least weak low-level inhibition persisting
through the day, and storms may be somewhat elevated. Nevertheless,
500-750 J/kg MLCAPE within a moderately sheared environment should
support at least transient organized cells. Isolated hail and strong
gusts will be possible mainly through early evening.

...Leitman.. 10/24/2023

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