Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Mon Oct 23 2023 09:25:00 ACUS02 KWNS 230532 SWODY2 SPC AC 230531 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ....SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms capable of producing hail are possible across parts of southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa and western Wisconsin, as well as over parts of southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico on Tuesday. ....Upper Midwest... A series of shortwave impulses will migrate through southwesterly deep-layer flow ahead of a northern stream upper trough over the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward into the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley vicinity ahead of a southeastward-sagging cold front. Instability will be tempered by weak diurnal heating. However, cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates, and MLCAPE values from 250-750 J/kg are possible. Effective shear greater than 35-40 kt will support organized cells, though given modest instability, longevity of stronger updrafts may be limited. Still a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing near 1-inch hail appear possible. ....Southern High Plains... A southern stream upper trough/low will develop eastward across northern Mexico and the southern Rockies Tuesday. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow is forecast over portions of southern NM into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a weak low is forecast over western KS with a dryline/surface trough extending southward across far western TX. Southerly low-level flow to the east of this boundary will allow low to mid 60s F dewpoints to prevail. As stronger large-scale ascent approaches the area by late afternoon into the overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage. Diurnal heating will remain modest, but steepening midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg. Given favorable vertical shear, some stronger cells are possible. Elongated hodographs and steep midlevel lapse rates suggest hail may occur with the strongest storms, in addition to gusty winds. ...Leitman.. 10/23/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .