Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Wed Oct 11 2023 08:14:00 ACUS02 KWNS 110601 SWODY2 SPC AC 110600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Thursday across parts of the central Plains, where large hail should be the main threat, but severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. The threat for a few tornadoes should continue through at least Thursday morning across portions of north/central Florida. ....Central Plains... An upper trough/low will eject from the central Rockies across the central Plains on Thursday, with a 60-80 kt southwesterly mid level jet overspreading KS/NE and western MO/IA through Thursday evening. A surface low initially near the KS/NE border should develop slowly eastward through the day, with a dryline extending southward from the low into KS/OK. Strong ascent attendant to the upper trough will eventually encourage convective initiation near the surface triple point, and perhaps down the length of the dryline into KS, by late Thursday afternoon and early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft should aid in the development of at least weak instability amid strong deep-layer shear (around 40-60 kt). Supercells capable of producing large hail should be the main threat with initial development. Some wind threat may also exist in the narrow instability corridor through Thursday evening as a low-level jet strengthens. Given the limited low-level moisture and potential for a well-mixed boundary layer with diurnal heating, the tornado threat is more uncertain. But, some chance for a tornado or two should exist through Thursday evening as 0-1 km SRH quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. The tornado threat may be focused near and northeast of the surface low along the warm front, where low-level flow will be locally backed to a more easterly component, enhancing low-level shear. Based on latest guidance consensus regarding the placement of the surface low and warm front, severe probabilities have been expanded west/northwestward to include more of central/eastern NE. ....Florida... A mid-level perturbation is forecast to move quickly off the Southeast Atlantic Coast Thursday morning. In its wake, strong low/mid-level winds across FL should tend to veer to a more unidirectional/west-southwesterly component by early Thursday afternoon. Still, enhanced low-level and deep-layer shear will probably persist through Thursday morning across parts of north/central FL along and south of a front. This shear, along with weak to moderate instability, should support some updraft organization and a continued threat for occasional strong/damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes with the more robust convection. Have added a Slight Risk (continuation from Day 1/Wednesday) where the best low-level shear and related tornado threat is forecast Thursday morning. ...Gleason.. 10/11/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .