Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Oct 10 2023 09:30:00 ACUS02 KWNS 100602 SWODY2 SPC AC 100600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly hail appear possible Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Thunderstorms may move onshore from the Gulf of Mexico along parts of the Florida Gulf Coast Wednesday night while posing some threat for strong/gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two. ....Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... An upper trough will dig and further consolidate on Wednesday as it advances from the Northwest/Great Basin towards the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Pronounced large-scale ascent preceding this feature will likely encourage a lee surface low to deepen as it develops from eastern CO to western/central KS through the period. Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints will continue advecting northward across the central Plains through Wednesday night along/east of a surface dryline. But, a cap and lingering MLCIN should inhibit convective development across the warm sector through much of the day. Even so, robust convection will likely initiate along/north of a warm front from parts of central/eastern KS/NE into northern MO and western/southern IA, as a southerly low-level jet quickly strengthens Wednesday evening. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain fairly limited, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE should exist, aided by low-level moist advection and steep mid-level lapse rates. As low/mid-level winds strengthen with the approach of the upper trough, increasing deep-layer shear should support some convective organization. Isolated severe hail and perhaps occasional strong wind gusts may occur with the more robust cores through Wednesday night. ....Florida Gulf Coast... There is still some uncertainty regarding the evolution of a surface low across the western through northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. A weak mid-level perturbation, potentially associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Lidia, should advance east- northeastward along the Gulf Coast. Rich low-level moisture and appreciable surface-based instability will probably remain offshore the central Gulf Coast (LA/MS/AL), with the 00Z NAM being a notable outlier in its depiction/strength of the surface low. Better chances for low to mid 70s surface dewpoints to advance inland appear to be across parts of FL Wednesday evening/night. Both low-level and mid-level flow are forecast to strengthen in this time frame across FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. An isolated threat for strong/gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two may exist from parts of the FL Big Bend southward along/near the FL Gulf Coast, given sufficient boundary-layer instability and strengthening low-level shear. ...Gleason.. 10/10/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .