Subj : DAY3SVR: Marginal Risk To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Mon Oct 09 2023 07:25:00 ACUS03 KWNS 090731 SWODY3 SPC AC 090730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of the central Plains. The potential for severe thunderstorms to move onshore from the Gulf of Mexico along immediate portions of the Florida Gulf Coast remains uncertain. ....Central Plains... An upper trough should dig and further consolidate on Wednesday as it advances from the Northwest/Great Basin towards the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Pronounced large-scale ascent preceding this feature will likely encourage a lee surface low to deepen as it develops from eastern CO to western/central KS through the period. Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints will continue advecting northward across the central Plains through Wednesday night along/east of a surface dryline. But, a cap and lingering MLCIN should inhibit convective development across the warm sector through much of the day. Still, robust convection will likely initiate along/near a warm front from parts of central into eastern KS/NE as a southerly low-level jet rapidly strengthens Wednesday evening. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain fairly limited, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE amid increasing deep-layer shear, as low/mid-level winds strengthen, should support some convective organization. Isolated severe hail and perhaps some strong wind gusts may occur with the more robust cores, before convection becomes mainly elevated Wednesday night. ....Gulf Coast... A mid-level perturbation should move quickly east-northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. There are still fairly substantial differences in model guidance regarding the related surface low placement and evolution through the period. This lends considerable uncertainty with how far, if at all, rich low-level moisture will be able to advance inland from parts of the central Gulf Coast toward the FL Gulf Coast. While both low-level and deep-layer shear appear favorable for organized thunderstorms, there is currently too much uncertainty regarding the potential for surface-based convection Wednesday evening/night to include low severe probabilities. ...Gleason.. 10/09/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .