Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic To : All From : Mike Powell Date : Tue Oct 03 2023 08:31:00 ACUS02 KWNS 030602 SWODY2 SPC AC 030600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST AND NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains, with the greatest threat currently expected from northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ....Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level longwave trough moving across the central CONUS will take on more of a positive tilt on Wednesday, as a shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the upper Great Lakes into Ontario, while the southern portion of the longwave trough moves through the southern Plains. A cold front will move through parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains. ....Southwest TX into north TX/southern OK... Elevated convection will likely be ongoing somewhere across central/eastern OK Wednesday morning, within a modest low-level warm-advection regime. The remnant outflow boundary from this early-day convection will likely determine the northern extent of the effective warm sector Wednesday afternoon. Along and south of this boundary, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization. Reduction of MLCINH via diurnal heating and large-scale ascent in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level trough will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon from parts of west/northwest TX into southwest OK. While flow within the lowest 5-6 km will be relatively modest, sufficient low-level veering and notably stronger flow above 6 km will support effective shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for initial supercell development with an attendant threat of large hail, possibly in excess of 2 inches in diameter. As storm coverage increases with time, some clustering and upscale growth will be possible, which may result in an increasing severe-wind threat into Wednesday evening, before storm intensity and organization begins to wane by early Thursday morning. A Slight Risk has been added from northern parts of the Permian Basin into northwest TX and southwest OK, where confidence is currently greatest regarding intense storm development during the afternoon. Some future adjustments may be needed, depending on trends regarding boundary position and placement of the effective warm sector. ....Mid/upper TX Coast into east-central TX... Diurnal thunderstorm development is expected on Wednesday from near the mid/upper TX coast into east-central TX, within a subtly forced but very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow may be sufficient to support some modest storm organization, though with very weak midlevel lapse rates, severe potential with this afternoon convection appears relatively limited at this time. ...Dean.. 10/03/2023 $$ --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105) .