Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Oct 01 2023 12:32:00

ACUS02 KWNS 010527
SWODY2
SPC AC 010526

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible Monday over parts of the
High Plains, from eastern New Mexico northward across the Black
Hills. Hail and damaging gusts will be the primary risks.

....Synopsis...
On Monday, a highly amplified upper trough will move east from the
Great Basin across the Rockies, with increasing southwest flow aloft
spreading into the Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist
across the MS Valley, with height rises continuing across the Great
Lakes and Northeast.

At the surface, high pressure will result in stable conditions over
much of the East, as low pressure begins to develop from the central
High Plains during the afternoon into the northern Plains overnight.
Southerly low-level will maintain primarily 50s F dewpoints over
much of the region, with more robust moisture from the lower Rio
Grande Valley to the TX coast.

....Southern High Plains...
Storms are expected to form by midday across central and eastern NM
where easterly flow will support moisture advection and
destabilization. MUCAPE over 1500 J/kg, 50 kt effective shear and
effective SRH around 200 m2/s2 will favor a few supercells along
with an eventual merging of outflow/linear bowing structures capable
of large hail then damaging winds. A brief tornado may also occur
during the late afternoon/early evening prior to expected outflow
domination. The meridional flow regime aloft will likely lead to a
rather slow eastward progression of these storms, moving into TX
after 00Z.

....Northern Plains...
Strong heating will occur over much of WY and CO, and south of a
stalled front extending roughly from central SD into eastern
WY/western NE near the surface low. Steepening lapse rates will lead
to an uncapped air mass from northeast CO into SD, with elevated
instability developing from western SD into ND. Low-level
convergence may be sufficient for isolated severe storms late in the
day, with increasing precipitation chances overnight as height falls
increase and a low-level jet around 40-50 kt focuses lift. A few
storms may produce damaging gusts, along with sporadic hail with the
cellular activity.

...Jewell.. 10/01/2023

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