Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Sep 28 2023 08:54:00

ACUS02 KWNS 280550
SWODY2
SPC AC 280548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered storms may produce hail or isolated severe gusts over
parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley on Friday.

....Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley...
With high pressure over much of the East, severe weather chances
will be focused over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, ahead
of an upper trough and where moisture will be of favorable
magnitude.

Aloft, a progressive lead wave is forecast to affect the Dakotas and
northern MN during the first half of the day, enhancing deep-layer
shear and aiding lift. An inverted surface trough will extend
northeastward out of KS and NE and into western MN during the day,
and this will also be near the axis of strongest heating.

Winds around 850 mb will increase out of the southwest at 30-40 kt
in association with the aforementioned midlevel wave, and this will
likely enhance warm advection north of the surface trough/wind shift
over the eastern Dakotas and western MN through midday. Elevated
thunderstorms are likely, some potentially producing marginally
severe hail due to cool temperatures aloft.

Later in the day as the surface trough heats, the air mass will
become unstable and uncapped. However, overall lift will not be very
strong in the wake of the early day disturbance. As such, and with
rising heights, rather disorganized and perhaps only isolated severe
storms are anticipated during the diurnal heating maximum, from near
the MO River into MN. Both hail and locally strong gusts will be
possible.

...Jewell.. 09/28/2023

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