Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Mon Sep 25 2023 10:01:00

ACUS02 KWNS 250546
SWODY2
SPC AC 250545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM FAR WEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with strong winds and hail, will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley, as
well as from the Pecos Valley to Big Bend.

....Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level low will move southeastward across eastern Iowa on
Tuesday, as a front moves southward into central Missouri and
central Illinois. Near the front, surface dewpoints will likely be
near 60 F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a pocket of
moderate instability may develop across the Mississippi Valley. This
combined with large-scale ascent, associated with the upper-level
low, will support scattered thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be about 35
knots, with 500 mb temperatures near -14 C. This should be favorable
for a marginal hail threat with cells that develop to the southeast
of the upper-level system, where instability and shear are forecast
to be maximized. A few strong gusts will also be possible,
especially during the late afternoon when low-level lapse rates will
be steepest.

....Far West Texas/Eastern New Mexico...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
southern Rockies and southern Plains on Tuesday. At the surface,
upslope flow will reinforce a southeast-to-northwest corridor of
maximized low-level moisture from southwest Texas to southeast New
Mexico. In response to surface heating, pockets of moderate
instability may develop near the moist axis by afternoon. Despite
the lack of large-scale ascent, topographic forcing will result in
isolated to scattered convective initiation during the afternoon.
The instability, combined with 25 to 30 knot of 0-6 km shear, and
700-500 mb lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km, should be favorable
for an isolated severe threat. Hail and marginally severe gusts will
be the primary hazards during the late afternoon and early evening.

...Broyles.. 09/25/2023

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