Subj : MESO: Sever Potential
To   : ALL
From : Mike Powell
Date : Tue Sep 19 2023 20:46:00

ACUS11 KWNS 200127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200127
OKZ000-TXZ000-200300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0827 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023

Areas affected...central/eastern Oklahoma and north-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 200127Z - 200300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Multiple ongoing supercells/supercell clusters in watch
686 will move east of the watch in the next 1 to 2 hours. A
downstream watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells have produced hail (some 2+ inch)
within watch 686. Some of these storms have congealed into supercell
clusters with a few discrete storms remaining. These storms are
expected to move east of watch 686 within the next 1 to 2 hours. The
OUN/DFW 00Z RAOB shows a very favorable environment with 1500 to
2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear around 40 to 50 knots. Cooling
surface temperatures has led to some increasing inhibition, however,
the 00Z OUN RAOB still shows around 1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE.
Therefore, given mature supercells and ongoing strong mesocyclones,
expect them to persist into the late evening and potentially the
early overnight hours. A watch may be needed downstream to cover
this threat.

...Bentley/Bunting.. 09/20/2023

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   36179737 36289666 36279595 36169520 35479506 34249523
            33219571 32599661 32509725 32509791 32519820 32619848
            32899848 33499818 34009768 34409740 35099733 35439736
            36179737


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