Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk
To   : ALL
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Sep 16 2023 21:04:00

ACUS02 KWNS 161734
SWODY2
SPC AC 161732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and
evening over parts of southeast Georgia and the Carolina Coastal
Plain.

A mid-level trough initially extending from the Upper Great Lakes
south-southwestward to the central Gulf Coast area will advance
steadily toward the Appalachians through Monday morning.  Elsewhere,
ridging aloft will prevail across much of the country.

At the surface, a weak/diffuse front will progress eastward across
the Appalachians, and then become a bit better-organized -- reaching
the East Coast overnight.  A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve
over southeastern Georgia during the day, and then move
northeastward along the Carolina Coast through the second half of
the period.

....Southeast...
Daytime heating/weak destabilization is forecast over parts of
Georgia and South Carolina Sunday, in the vicinity of the developing
frontal wave.  This should support development of showers and
isolated thunderstorms, which would then spread northeastward in the
vicinity of the North Carolina coast later in the period.

With enhanced shear in the vicinity of the frontal wave, a few
stronger storms/storm clusters may evolve with time, accompanied by
risk for locally gusty winds.  A brief tornado cannot be ruled out,
particularly near or just off the Carolina coast through the second
half of the period.

...Goss.. 09/16/2023

$$

---
 * SLMR 2.1a * A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man. -J.Springfield
 * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

.