Subj : DAY1SVR: Marginal Risk
To   : ALL
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Sep 13 2023 21:13:00

ACUS01 KWNS 140039
SWODY1
SPC AC 140037

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN US...

....SUMMARY...
Gusty winds and marginally severe hail remain possible this evening
across parts of the southwestern US.

....01z Update...

Southern-stream short-wave trough is progressing across the southern
High Plains early this evening. Despite this notable feature,
low-level convergence remains quite weak across the southern Plains
into NM where isolated-scattered convection persists. Primary
surface boundary has advanced into coastal TX, arcing into deep
south TX/northeast Mexico. 00z soundings from MAF and DRT exhibit
negligible CINH with SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Weaker buoyancy exists
into central NM (ABQ), though sufficiently sheared/buoyant for a few
robust updrafts. Very little hail has been reported with convection
this evening, but lapse rates are seasonally steep and favorable for
gusty winds and at least marginally severe hail. Boundary-layer
cooling should limit updraft intensity in the next several hours.

...Darrow.. 09/14/2023

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