Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Predi
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Wed Sep 06 2023 06:24:00

ACUS48 KWNS 060853
SWOD48
SPC AC 060852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
From Saturday to Monday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to break
down over the Great Plains, as an upper-level trough weakens along
the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a relatively narrow corridor
of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to remain from Oklahoma
extending northwestward into parts of the central High Plains. A
cold front is forecast to move southward across the Great Plains by
early next week. Thunderstorm development will be possible each
afternoon and evening along and near the instability axis to the
south of the front, with additional storms possible on the front
itself. Although a large severe threat area appears unlikely, an
isolated severe potential could develop in areas that become
favorable at the mesoscale. The medium-range models suggest that the
greatest chance for a severe threat could be in the central High
Plains on Saturday and Sunday, and in the southern Plains on Monday.


....Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8...
On Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move
eastward from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. The
southern extent of the trough could be in the Ark-La-Tex. The
medium-range models suggest that a moist airmass will be in place
from central Texas eastward to the central Gulf Coast. A potential
for strong thunderstorms would be possible each afternoon near the
northern edge of this moist airmass, along a quasi-stationary front.
At this time, any severe potential is expected to be isolated and
marginal.

...Broyles.. 09/06/2023

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