Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sun Sep 03 2023 09:07:00

ACUS02 KWNS 030538
SWODY2
SPC AC 030536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND FAR NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with hail and isolated
damaging winds will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across
parts of the northern Plains.

....Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move from the Intermountain West into the
Rockies on Monday, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly across
much of the north-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the northern Plains, as a surface low
rapidly deepens across central South Dakota. A zone of strong
large-scale ascent will move into the northern High Plains,
providing lift favorable for scattered thunderstorm development
during the mid to late afternoon. Additional storms are expected to
develop across parts of the Dakotas, along and near the front due to
surface heating and increasing low-level convergence. Surface
dewpoints near the front will likely be mostly in the 50s F. This
will likely contribute to the development of a pocket of moderate
instability from western South Dakota extending northeastward into
southeastern North Dakota. NAM forecast soundings from eastern
Wyoming into the central Dakotas suggest that MLCAPE will be peak in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range during the late afternoon. Forecast
soundings also have 0-6 km shear forecast in the 35 to 45 knot range
in most areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment should support an isolated severe threat during the late
afternoon and early evening. Rotating cells will have potential to
produce hail. The rotating storms, along with the more organized
multicells, may also have a wind-damage potential.

...Broyles.. 09/03/2023

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