Subj : DAY2SVR: Marginal Risk
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Sat Sep 02 2023 07:56:00

ACUS02 KWNS 020557
SWODY2
SPC AC 020556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 02 2023

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms associated with hail and strong
gusty winds will be possible across parts of the Intermountain West
Sunday afternoon and evening.

....Intermountain West...
A relatively high-amplitude system will move eastward from the West
coast into the Intermountain West on Sunday. Ahead of the
upper-level trough, a south-to-north corridor of instability will
develop by afternoon across parts of eastern Nevada, western Utah
and southern Idaho. As surface temperatures warm during the
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will form within a zone of
large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough. Although
MLCAPE is forecast to peak between 500 and 1000 J/kg in most areas,
mid-level lapse rates will be steep, peaking around 7.5 C/km during
the late afternoon. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear
will be sufficient for a marginal severe threat. Hail will be
possible with the more intense cores, and isolated wind damage may
occur just ahead of or within the stronger downdrafts.

...Broyles.. 09/02/2023

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: Ilink: CCO - capitolcityonline.net (454:1/105)

.