Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Predic
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Fri Sep 01 2023 13:33:00

ACUS02 KWNS 011733
SWODY2
SPC AC 011731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Sep 01 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United
States on Saturday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will remain situated near coastal northern CA on
Saturday, with an upper high over the central Plains. Between the
two features, southerly flow will maintain moisture over the Great
basin and parts of the Southwest, with daytime showers and
thunderstorms common.

Areas of clouds and ongoing precipitation early in the day will
inhibit heating in many areas, and as such MLCAPE is likely to be
limited to 500 J/kg over much of the region. Activity is likely
during the morning from northwest AZ across much of NV, with
thunderstorm probabilities maximized during the late afternoon with
the aid of heating.

Forecast soundings show limited lapse rates relative to Friday, but
modest deep-layer shear does exist with around 35 kt. Sporadic
strong gusts may occur anywhere within the region, but overall
severe probabilities appear low. Straight hodographs and cooler air
aloft closer to the upper low from northern NV into southern ID may
support small hail.

...Jewell.. 09/01/2023

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