Subj : DAY1SVR: Marginal Risk AZ
To   : All
From : Mike Powell
Date : Thu Aug 31 2023 07:31:00

ACUS01 KWNS 310546
SWODY1
SPC AC 310544

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA...

....SUMMARY...
Gusty winds may accompany convection across Arizona late Thursday
afternoon and evening.

....Arizona...

Upper anticyclone currently centered over the southwestern US is
forecast to shift east and weaken a bit by the end of the period. As
this large-scale feature moves east, mid-level flow will become
southeasterly across northwestern Mexico into AZ. As a result,
higher PW air mass will advance north across the lower CO River
Valley and adjacent lower desert regions by 01/00z.

Scattered convection that developed Wednesday evening over southeast
AZ continues to propagate southwest into northern Mexico. It appears
convective debris will not inhibit boundary layer heating Thursday
and surface temperatures will likely soar above 100F again at lower
elevations, effectively removing inhibition as convective
temperatures are breached. High-based convection is once again
expected to develop by 21z then propagate northwest within
strengthening southeasterly mid-level flow. Gusty winds are the
primary risk with this activity.

....TS Idalia...

TS Idalia is forecast to move off the Carolina Coast around sunrise,
then curve east over the western Atlantic. This evolution should
result in stronger shear focusing offshore along with any meaningful
supercell threat.

...Darrow/Thornton.. 08/31/2023

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